How the figures are made

The headline

The headline on every card and home page is the ten-year internal rate of return (IRR) of letting the home as it is, held in box 3 as it stands for 2026, at the base case for rent growth, value growth and vacancy. It is unlevered: the mortgage and the value growth it assumes are printed beside it, from the stored figures.

It is the same cell of the same stored forecast as the detail table. The other cells (refresh or full works, box 3 as announced for 2028, a BV, a mortgage, a pessimistic or optimistic case) are choices on the page, never a separate number.

Rent-control points (WWS)

Each home gets a points range under the 2026 woningwaarderingsstelsel, every input with its source: the advert, the BAG register, EP-Online or an estimate. Up to 186 points the rent is capped at a legal maximum (up to 143 points the social segment, from 144 to 186 the mid segment); from 187 points the home is in the free sector.

When one input decides the segment, usually the WOZ value, the page says the segment is undecided and names that input, rather than picking one.

Market rent from comparable rentals

The rent comes from rental listings near the home of the same type, with a similar size and bedroom count. Each comparable’s rent is made bare (service costs taken out) and corrected for size and energy label before it counts.

Three rings are tried in turn: 1 km, 2.5 km and 8 km around the home. The first ring with at least five comparables after the extremes are trimmed decides; a ring whose comparables count as fewer than four once weighted is not enough. When no ring passes, or the comparables disagree too widely, the rent is withheld, never a municipal or national average.

Below 187 points the lower of the market rent and the legal maximum is the rent the forecast uses.

Solid and indicative

A home is marked indicative when its rent rests on weaker evidence: comparables more than 2 km away on a weighted average, comparables none of which was first advertised or let in the last 120 days, a legal maximum whose supporting rentals the age check rejected, an asking rent of the home itself that we have not seen let, a points count within 10 of the regulated limit on an unchecked energy label, or a gross yield far above the other homes. Its figures are not changed; when you sort on return it is listed after the others.

Our test holds few houses: 160 with comparables within 2 km and 360 beyond.

The purchase price

The forecast buys at the expected price, not the asking price: the asking price plus the average overbid for the home’s type, NVM’s national figure for the third quarter of 2026 (read through a secondary source), moved to the NVM region’s own figure where one was read (Apeldoorn’s is the Veluwe’s, from NVM’s regional market report). Every home names both with their source and “not verified”. A home whose price was cut, and new build sold at a fixed project price, get no overbid.

Transfer tax and the buying costs come on top, except where a new-build price already includes them (vrij op naam).

Municipality rules and “not verified”

Each municipality’s rules (tourist tax, registration, purchase protection, letting rules, OZB and levies) carry their source and the date they were checked. A rule marked “not verified” (niet geverifieerd) was not confirmed on the official source; the page says so beside it. These are signals about the rules, never a permission.

Two kinds of rule withhold the homes they may apply to until someone has read them: the ground-lease (erfpacht) conditions on letting, and the occupation duty on new build sold by project. Where a rule is replaced by an assumption for a municipality, its label (“Aanname”) prints beside the rule it stands in for.

When a home is withheld

Every night a publish gate checks each municipality’s stored forecasts before its homes are shown. A home is withheld, not shown, for any of these reasons:

• Sold: the home’s own page says it is sold (Verkocht, or Geveild after an auction). It is no longer for sale, so it is never shown as an investment, whatever its forecast. A home sold subject to conditions, under offer or under option is not withheld for it: it keeps its forecast, and its status stands beside it.
• Too few comparable rents: no ring around the home has enough comparable rentals, or they disagree too widely; or the home’s living area or location is not known, so no comparable rent can be scaled to it; or the comparable rentals near the home are much newer homes and too few of the home’s own generation are known, so their rent is no evidence for this one: its rent is withheld until we can measure the difference; or the building year of the home, or of most of its comparable rentals, is not known, so their ages cannot be compared.
• Not yet delivered, unfinished or being rebuilt: the BAG register shows the home unfinished, its build year lies ahead, it is a new-build project the BAG does not yet show as the home sold, or the advert’s own words point to a project still being built; the photos of a recent new build show its kitchen, bathroom or toilet missing or due for replacement; or the BAG registers a rebuild, or a dwelling newly formed in an older building. Its rent and value cannot be measured as it stands.
• Ground lease (erfpacht) terms: the advert does not state the ground rent (canon), or what it becomes after a bought-off period; the conditions on letting of a home on ground lease have not been read yet; or they ban letting.
• A letting rule of the municipality: purchase protection or another municipal rule that would stop or condition letting this home, also where such a rule covers only some neighbourhoods and the home’s neighbourhood could not be placed; or the municipality’s rules have not been read yet.
• A possible duty on new build: new build up to the municipality’s price limit may come with a duty to live in it yourself (zelfbewoningsplicht), a housing permit for whoever lives in it (huisvestingsvergunning), or a term during which it must be kept for its target group (instandhoudingstermijn); until the duty is read, those homes wait.
• Possibly outside the municipality: the advert names a place in another municipality, or none, so the home may lie outside the municipality whose rules the forecast applies, and the rules where it may lie have not been established.
• A possible restriction our advert reader flags, or an advert not yet read: every advert is read for what it says about letting. A home waits when the reader flags a possible restriction (letting banned or only with consent, a sitting tenant, an owner-occupation duty, sale conditions the advert does not state), also one we cannot find word for word in the text or one it could not answer clearly, and while the advert has not yet been read in its current version.
• What the advert says about letting, or an advert with no full text: the advert’s own words say the home may not be let, needs a permit to be let (purchase protection), is sold with a sitting tenant or burdened with someone else’s use, is not zoned as a home, or comes with an owner-occupation duty or sale conditions it does not state; or the stored advert is cut short or has no description, so it cannot be read in full.
• Other reasons: anything else the forecast cannot stand behind.

Withheld homes are counted on each municipality’s page, by reason, and never shown. A home whose figures changed after the night’s check waits for the next one.

Photos

Photos are shown from the advert’s own image host. Brixfox never stores them.

The estate agent

Every home credits the selling estate agent (makelaar). Where the agent is not linked yet, the page says so. A listing portal is never named as the source.

Not advice

The forecast is a model, not advice. Check your own tax position, financing and the municipality’s rules with an adviser before you bid.