Short-Term Rental Oversupply vs. Undersupply in 2026: A 21-Market Comparison
Data by Brixfox ·
Almost every short-term-rental market on earth is adding Airbnbs faster than it is adding nights of demand. Across the 21 markets below, the three-year trend is near-universal: more listings, and headline occupancy grinding down a few points a year. So "is this market getting more supply?" is the wrong question — the answer is almost always yes.
The question that actually separates a good remote purchase from a bad one is whether nightly-rate growth is outrunning that new supply. Where it is, revenue per listing (RevPAR) keeps climbing even as occupancy dips — that is real pricing power, the signature of an undersupplied market. Where it isn’t, RevPAR falls, and today’s yield quietly erodes under the next wave of new hosts.
Here is the supply-vs-demand picture across every market Brixfox tracks, read from three years of Airbnb history — sorted from the markets where buyers still hold the upper hand to the ones where supply has clearly won.
Three-year supply vs. revenue trend, by market
Annualised trends over 36 months of Airbnb history (AirROI), each read from one representative leisure locality. Supply = active-listing growth; ADR = nightly-rate trend; RevPAR = revenue-per-listing trend. See methodology below.
| Market | Supply / yr | ADR / yr | RevPAR / yr | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArubaNoord | +44% | +32% | +34% | Undersupplied — pricing power |
| CuraçaoWillemstad | +28% | +17% | +18% | Undersupplied — pricing power |
| MauritiusGrand Baie | +23% | +15% | +11% | Undersupplied — pricing power |
| BarbadosWest Coast | +9% | +3% | +7% | Firming |
| ThailandPhuket · Rawai | +28% | +16% | +7% | Firming — absorbing fast supply |
| Turks & CaicosProvidenciales | +7% | +11% | +3% | Firming |
| VietnamHanoi | +14% | +5% | +2% | Balanced |
| CyprusPaphos | +6% | +11% | −2% | Softening |
| DubaiDubai | +40% | +8% | −3% | Softening — supply surge |
| NetherlandsDomburg (coast) | +4% | +10% | −4% | Softening |
| MexicoTulum | +6% | +5% | −6% | Softening |
| PortugalAlgarve · Albufeira | +7% | +12% | −6% | Softening |
| SpainMarbella | +12% | +9% | −6% | Oversupplied — supply surge |
| FranceNice | +12% | +11% | −6% | Oversupplied — supply surge |
| AustriaZell am See | +5% | +8% | −7% | Oversupplied |
| BaliCanggu | +9% | +4% | −7% | Oversupplied |
| ItalySorrento | +9% | +7% | −9% | Oversupplied |
| PhilippinesCebu | +36% | +1% | −10% | Oversupplied — supply surge |
| MontenegroBudva | −1% | +4% | −15% | Demand-led decline |
| CroatiaHvar | −7% | −2% | −21% | Demand-led decline |
| GreeceMykonos | +8% | −10% | −31% | Oversupplied |
Supply = active-listing growth. ADR = nightly-rate trend. RevPAR = revenue per available listing (ADR × occupancy) — the bottom-line read on whether a market is gaining or losing pricing power.
What the data says
- Supply is climbing almost everywhere, and occupancy is compressing with it — the 36-month curves show roughly −3 to −9 occupancy points a year across nearly every market sampled. That makes new supply a constant, not a signal. The signal is RevPAR: whether nightly rates are rising fast enough to outrun it.
- The Caribbean and Indian Ocean are the standout pricing-power story. Aruba, Curaçao, Mauritius and Barbados are absorbing 9–44% more listings a year and still posting rising RevPAR — on supply-constrained islands, demand is outpacing even a fast build-out. These are the closest thing to genuinely undersupplied markets in the set.
- The mature Mediterranean is the cautionary tale. Greece (Mykonos), Croatia (Hvar) and Montenegro (Budva) show the steepest RevPAR declines, −15% to −31% a year. Tellingly, Croatia and Montenegro are sliding even as listings shrink — that’s demand-side softening and discounting, not just overbuilding.
- Asia is a split tape. Bali (Canggu) is softening as supply keeps growing faster than rates, while Thailand (Phuket) holds up and Vietnam (Hanoi) sits balanced. The Philippines (Cebu) is the region’s clearest oversupply, adding ~36% more listings a year with rates flat.
- Dubai is the supply-surge stress test. It is adding listings faster than anywhere we track — around +40% a year — yet RevPAR is only mildly negative because nightly rates are still climbing ~8% and demand keeps pace. That’s resilience under a flood of new supply, not collapse — but it is a market where new entrants now compete hard for every booking.
What "oversupplied" does — and doesn’t — mean for your purchase
A softening or oversupplied verdict is a statement about the market average, not about any single property. Even in markets with falling RevPAR, the best-located, best-run listings still clear strong occupancy at firm rates — the average falls because the long tail of weak, poorly-managed listings is growing fastest. Oversupply widens the gap between the top-decile asset and the median one; it does not close the door.
That is exactly why a market-level trend is a starting filter, never the decision. A buyer’s edge in a softening market is selection: the right area, the right bedroom count, a real licence where one is required, and a credible nightly rate backed by comparable listings nearby. In a firming market, the same discipline buys you more margin for error. Brixfox is built to make that selection on real, per-property data rather than a national headline — observed occupancy from daily calendar diffs, comparable-driven rate estimates, and all-in cost by market.
How we read supply and demand
The trends here come from AirROI’s Enterprise dataset: 36 months of monthly occupancy, nightly-rate and active-listing history per market, fit with a linear trend. AirROI models its numbers by scraping Airbnb and inferring bookings, so treat them as a directional reference, not a census.
Each market is read from one representative leisure locality — shown in grey under the market name. Mykonos stands in for Greece, Canggu for Bali, the Algarve’s Albufeira for Portugal, Marbella for Spain. So this is a read on each market’s flagship short-term-rental hub, not its national average, and a single hub can run hotter or colder than its country as a whole.
We deliberately show the three-year trend rather than an absolute occupancy number. Trends travel well between data sources; absolute occupancy does not, because a whole-market figure (which includes dormant listings) sits well below the occupancy an actively-rented property achieves. The per-property occupancy used everywhere else on Brixfox is measured directly from daily Airbnb and Booking.com calendar diffs — that is the number to underwrite a specific purchase on.
See also
Bali
What Drives Bali Villa Revenue
We measured what really moves Bali Airbnb revenue across 15,900 listings: bedroom count dwarfs everything — and the Superhost badge barely matters.
Bali
Bali Oversupply by Area
We mapped 15,900+ active Bali Airbnbs by area: where supply has saturated returns (Canggu, Ubud) and where demand still outruns supply (Sanur, the Bukit) — from our own daily calendar data.
Dubai
Dubai Airbnb Investment
Real 2026 Airbnb occupancy, nightly rates and monthly revenue across Dubai’s neighborhoods — from daily calendar data.
Bali
Bali Villa Investment
Real 2026 Airbnb occupancy and revenue for Bali by area — Seminyak, Canggu, Ubud and more — from daily calendar data.
Algarve
Algarve Airbnb Investment
Real 2026 Airbnb occupancy and revenue for the Algarve by town — Albufeira, Lagos, Vilamoura and more — from daily calendar data.