Short-Term Rental Oversupply vs. Undersupply in 2026: A 21-Market Comparison
Data by Brixfox · · Updated
Almost every short-term-rental market on earth is adding Airbnbs. Of the 21 markets below, 20 added listings over the past two years, several of them by 30–45% a year. So “is this market getting more supply?” is the wrong question: the answer is almost always yes.
The question that separates a good remote purchase from a bad one is whether demand is keeping up with that new supply. Where it is, revenue per available night (RevPAR) — nightly rate times occupancy — keeps climbing even as new listings arrive: real pricing power. Where it isn’t, occupancy slips, rates stall, RevPAR falls, and today’s yield quietly erodes under the next wave of new hosts.
Here is the picture across every market Brixfox tracks, read from three years of Airbnb history and compared whole year against whole year — sorted from the markets where buyers hold the upper hand to the ones where RevPAR is falling.
Two-year supply vs. revenue trend, by market
Annualised change between the 12 months to July 2024 and the 12 months to July 2026 (AirROI, US dollars), each read from one representative leisure locality. Supply = active listings; ADR = the median listing’s nightly rate; RevPAR = the median listing’s revenue per available night. See methodology below.
| Market | Supply / yr | ADR / yr | RevPAR / yr | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArubaNoord | +42% | +24% | +31% | Undersupplied — pricing power |
| CuraçaoWillemstad | +32% | +20% | +20% | Undersupplied — pricing power |
| MauritiusGrand Baie | +33% | +19% | +15% | Undersupplied — pricing power |
| PortugalAlgarve · Albufeira | +8% | +17% | +12% | Firming — rates outrun supply |
| SpainMarbella | +14% | +13% | +12% | Firming |
| NetherlandsDomburg (coast) | +11% | +14% | +12% | Firming |
| CyprusPaphos | +8% | +13% | +11% | Firming |
| BarbadosWest Coast · Mount Standfast | +9% | +11% | +8% | Firming |
| FranceNice | +14% | +13% | +8% | Firming |
| ItalySorrento | +9% | +9% | +6% | Firming |
| BaliCanggu | +9% | +9% | +5% | Mixed — median up, mean down |
| MontenegroBudva | +4% | +11% | +5% | Balanced |
| AustriaZell am See | +7% | +13% | +4% | Balanced |
| ThailandPhuket · Rawai | +32% | +7% | +3% | Balanced — absorbing fast supply |
| CroatiaHvar | −5% | +8% | +2% | Mixed — median up, mean down |
| VietnamHanoi | +17% | +4% | +1% | Balanced |
| DubaiDubai | +46% | +6% | +1% | Mixed — supply surge |
| PhilippinesCebu | +39% | +4% | −4% | Softening — supply surge |
| Turks & CaicosProvidenciales | +9% | +6% | −6% | Softening |
| GreeceMykonos | +11% | −2% | −7% | Declining — flat rates, fewer nights |
| MexicoTulum | +10% | −1% | −9% | Declining — flat rates, fewer nights |
Supply = active-listing growth. ADR = the median listing’s nightly-rate trend. RevPAR = the median listing’s revenue per available night — the bottom-line read on whether a market is gaining or losing pricing power. Each is the annualised change between the 12 months to July 2024 and the 12 months to July 2026.
What the data says
- Supply rose almost everywhere, but occupancy barely moved. Of the 21 localities, 20 added listings (Hvar is the exception), yet compared year against year AirROI’s average occupancy changed by between −3.8 and +2.7 points a year, and in 15 of the 21 by less than two. Most new supply was absorbed.
- The Caribbean and Indian Ocean still lead on pricing power. Aruba, Curaçao and Mauritius added 32–42% more listings a year and the typical listing’s RevPAR still rose 15–31% a year — on supply-constrained islands, demand kept pace with even a fast build-out.
- The European summer markets are firming, not softening. In the Algarve (Albufeira), Marbella, Domburg, Paphos, Nice and Sorrento supply grew 8–14% a year and the typical listing’s RevPAR still rose 6–12%. The typical nightly rate rose faster than supply in Albufeira, Domburg and Paphos, and roughly kept pace with it in Marbella, Nice and Sorrento (9–13% a year against 9–14%). Part of that is the euro’s rise against the dollar over the period, because AirROI reports in dollars.
- The declines are narrower than they looked. Tulum (−9%) and Mykonos (−7%) are the only localities where RevPAR fell clearly on both the median and the average listing; Hvar and Canggu are mixed (median up, average down), and Budva is up.
- Dubai is the supply-surge case: listings grew about 46% a year, the typical rate rose about 6% and the typical listing’s RevPAR held roughly flat (+1%), while the average listing’s fell about 4% a year. A resilient market, but one where new entrants compete hard for every booking.
- Asia is split. Rawai (Phuket) absorbed 32% more listings a year with the typical listing’s RevPAR still up about 3%; Hanoi is flat; Cebu added 39% more listings and the typical RevPAR fell about 4% a year — the clearest supply-led softening in the set.
What "oversupplied" does — and doesn’t — mean for your purchase
A softening or declining verdict is a statement about the market average, not about any single property. Even in markets with falling RevPAR, the best-located, best-run listings still clear strong occupancy at firm rates — the average falls because the long tail of weak, poorly-managed listings is growing fastest. Oversupply widens the gap between the top-decile asset and the median one; it does not close the door.
That is exactly why a market-level trend is a starting filter, never the decision. A buyer’s edge in a softening market is selection: the right area, the right bedroom count, a real licence where one is required, and a credible nightly rate backed by comparable listings nearby. In a firming market, the same discipline buys you more margin for error. Brixfox is built to make that selection on real, per-property data rather than a national headline — occupancy measured from daily calendars, comparable-driven rate estimates, and all-in cost by market.
How we read supply and demand
The trends come from AirROI’s market dataset: 36 months of monthly metrics per locality, August 2023 to July 2026, requested in US dollars and pulled on 1 September 2026. Each figure compares the average of the latest twelve months with the average of the first twelve and annualises the change over the two years between them. Comparing whole years cancels the seasonal cycle; fitting a straight line through seasonal monthly data does not, and it is sensitive to where the cycle starts and ends. The June version of this table came from an earlier AirROI pull that we no longer hold, and the series we do hold does not reproduce its figures under any method we tried — so we now compare whole years.
ADR and RevPAR are AirROI’s median-listing figures, the typical listing rather than an average dragged by the luxury tail or by a wave of cheaper new listings. Where the average listing moves the other way — Canggu (RevPAR −2% a year on average), Hvar (−3%) and Dubai (−4%) — the verdict says “Mixed”. Occupancy is AirROI’s market average, dormant listings included, so it reads well below what an actively-rented property achieves; we use its trend, not its level. AirROI models bookings by scraping Airbnb, so treat these figures as directional, not a census. And because it reports in dollars, the trends for markets whose currency floats against the dollar — the euro markets, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, Vietnam and Mauritius — include currency movement as well as local pricing.
Each market is read from one representative leisure locality — shown in grey under the market name. Mykonos stands in for Greece, Canggu for Bali, the Algarve’s Albufeira for Portugal, Marbella for Spain. So this is a read on each market’s flagship short-term-rental hub, not its national average, and a single hub can run hotter or colder than its country as a whole. The per-property occupancy used everywhere else on Brixfox is measured directly from daily Airbnb calendars — that is the number to underwrite a specific purchase on.
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